Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -145 MARQ +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -8.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -7.6 (-4.6) | 146.0 (+33.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.8 (-1.8) | 145.3 (+33.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -6.6 (-3.6) | 146.3 (+32.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -6.4 (-3.4) | 146.1 (+32.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 8-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#33) | 7.7 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#10) | 0.87 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.94 (#11) | 1.51 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#25) | 0.539 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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