Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | CONN +165 CREI -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -0.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.9 (-4.9) | 151.4 (-1.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.1 (-4.1) | 148.2 (+1.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -1.4 (-3.4) | 151.5 (-1.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -3.1 (-5.1) | 150.8 (-0.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#58) | 12.9 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#12) | 0.83 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.52 (#9) | 1.55 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.744 (#3) | 0.525 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 60.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 45.9% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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