Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +32 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -2.7 (+29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -1.5 (+30.5) | 136.0 (+2.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -2.2 (+29.8) | 136.7 (+1.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -0.9 (+31.1) | 137.9 (+0.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -1.1 (+30.9) | 135.7 (+2.3) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-9 | 3-11 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 2-7 |
| Home | 10-1 | 0-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#274) | -6.2 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#308) | -0.82 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.89 (#305) | -1.68 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#264) | 0.510 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 11.5% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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