Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -0.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.5 (-3.5) | 136.2 (-11.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.6 (-4.4) | 134.8 (-9.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.9 (-4.1) | 133.4 (-8.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-9 | 14-6 |
| Conference | 6-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 4-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-4 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#157) | 5.3 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#242) | 1.48 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#202) | 2.11 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#183) | 0.519 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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