Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -1450 UCF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +12 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -15.9 (-27.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -13.7 (-25.7) | 138.7 (+21.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -13.1 (-25.1) | 139.0 (+21.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -14.8 (-26.8) | 133.6 (+26.4) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -14.3 (-26.3) | 134.7 (+25.3) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | UCF 68 – 54 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#35) | 0.4 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#13) | 2.14 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.86 (#12) | 3.82 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.720 (#10) | 0.718 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 11.8% |
Game Analysis
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