Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +110 FSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -16.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-42.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -8.5 (+5.5) | 154.6 (-32.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -7.0 (+7.0) | 151.6 (-29.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2020 | UCF 86 – 74 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-11 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#264) | -7.7 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#300) | -1.86 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#288) | -2.64 (#297) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.8% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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