Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | SJU -190 GTWN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +11 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -4.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -2.9 (+8.1) | 156.3 (+20.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -3.2 (+7.8) | 157.2 (+19.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -3.4 (+7.6) | 157.8 (+19.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -2.5 (+8.5) | 157.4 (+19.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 10-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#134) | 1.1 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#146) | 0.85 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#144) | 1.57 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#164) | 0.554 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 43.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.