Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -34.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +33 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -36.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -24.0 (+9.0) | 140.7 (+2.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -35.6 (-2.6) | 142.2 (+0.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -35.2 (-2.2) | 139.8 (+3.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2021 | HOU 77 – 45 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 6-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 4-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#10) | -16.2 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#8) | -0.48 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.84 (#4) | -0.60 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.716 (#12) | 0.507 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 30.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 18.8% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 32.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 31.3% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 53.4% |
Game Analysis
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