Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -174 MRST +146 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +5 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -10.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -8.4 (+3.4) | 131.9 (+7.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -7.8 (+2.8) | 129.7 (+9.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -8.4 (+3.4) | 132.6 (+6.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -8.1 (+3.1) | 131.3 (+7.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MRST 84 – 70 MAN |
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRST 80 – 68 MAN |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MRST 82 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MRST 57 – 50 MAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MRST 70 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-13 | 12-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#319) | 0.1 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#299) | 0.97 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#306) | 0.85 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.317 (#315) | 0.486 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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