Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +9 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -8.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -9.6 (-0.6) | 130.4 (-21.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -9.3 (-0.3) | 124.1 (-15.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -9.7 (-0.7) | 130.4 (-21.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -8.6 (+0.4) | 131.1 (-22.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#154) | -3.9 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#170) | -1.64 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#166) | -2.59 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#240) | 0.433 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 44.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 82.7% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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