Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -750 AF +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -15.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -10.6 (-12.6) | 133.4 (+0.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -10.5 (-12.5) | 127.4 (+6.6) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -10.5 (-12.5) | 131.7 (+2.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -10.8 (-12.8) | 133.3 (+0.7) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-2 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#126) | -8.8 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#121) | -0.67 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#149) | -1.63 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#57) | 0.468 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 26.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 13.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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