Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | PUR -200 ND +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -9.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -7.6 (+2.4) | 141.0 (+25.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -7.6 (+2.4) | 136.5 (+29.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.4 (+2.6) | 139.5 (+26.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.4 (+2.6) | 142.6 (+23.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#55) | -0.9 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#96) | -0.68 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#100) | -0.93 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#100) | 0.494 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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