Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UAB -700 UTC +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -16.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -13.4 (-16.4) | 140.9 (-5.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -9.5 (-12.5) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -10.7 (-13.7) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -11.9 (-14.9) | 140.1 (-5.1) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#14) | 3.7 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#25) | 2.48 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#31) | 3.49 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#91) | 0.580 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 11.5% |
Game Analysis
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