Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | DEN +250 TXST -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -4.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -4.5 (+2.5) | 131.0 (+7.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -3.6 (+1.6) | 131.4 (+6.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.1 (+1.1) | 131.3 (+6.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -4.3 (+2.3) | 131.2 (+6.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2021 | TXST 71 – 58 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#309) | -3.5 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#315) | -0.38 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.98 (#308) | -1.17 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.310 (#312) | 0.487 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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