Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | ECU -700 JMU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -15.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -12.2 (-3.2) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -9.4 (-0.4) | 136.9 (+0.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -11.8 (-2.8) | 140.6 (-3.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -12.6 (-3.6) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 2-10 | 8-2 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#103) | -7.0 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#45) | -1.56 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#45) | -2.65 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#46) | 0.390 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 40.4% |
Game Analysis
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