Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | COFC -155 WCU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -1.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -0.0 (-6.0) | 156.5 (-10.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -1.2 (-4.8) | 150.7 (-4.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -0.1 (-6.1) | 154.0 (-8.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -0.3 (-5.7) | 154.1 (-8.1) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-10 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 4-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 1-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#254) | 0.7 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#298) | 1.29 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#295) | 2.47 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#296) | 0.535 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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