Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | IU -340 BTLR +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | IU -16.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -11.5 (-3.5) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -10.4 (-2.4) | 135.7 (-7.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -11.4 (-3.4) | 138.2 (-10.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -11.1 (-3.1) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#17) | -2.6 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#48) | 0.13 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#50) | 0.14 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#55) | 0.523 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 81.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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