Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LT -1100 LAM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +29 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | LT -14.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -11.9 (+17.1) | 137.1 (+5.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -10.1 (+18.9) | 137.0 (+6.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -12.3 (+16.7) | 137.1 (+5.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -12.3 (+16.7) | 135.1 (+7.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#173) | -11.0 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#155) | -2.24 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#163) | -3.15 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#178) | 0.406 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 39.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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