Betting Lines
| Spread | WSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | WSU -200 MTST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WSU +28 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -3.7 (+31.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WSU -1.9 (+26.1) | 137.9 (-1.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WSU -2.6 (+25.4) | 143.1 (-7.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WSU -4.5 (+23.5) | 142.5 (-6.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WSU -1.1 (+26.9) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WSU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 5-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#203) | 5.5 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#52) | 0.61 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#61) | 0.88 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#151) | 0.526 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WSU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 44.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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