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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas
@
Texas Tech
|
+11.2 | 135.0 | 81% | 58–57 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
St. John's
|
-0.5 | 160.4 | 51% | 94–76 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Saint Louis
|
+5.9 | 148.7 | 70% | 69–80 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Oregon
|
+7.5 | 148.1 | 77% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
North Texas
|
+18.6 | 143.0 | 89% | 55–85 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Bradley
|
+15.8 | 130.9 | 90% | 60–83 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Loyola Marymount
|
+12.0 | 144.1 | 87% | 48–51 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Wyoming
|
+12.6 | 148.2 | 87% | 78–82 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Southern Utah
|
+9.1 | 147.7 | 80% | 78–85 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Marquette
|
+1.8 | 144.5 | 61% | 70–63 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+1.6 | 140.5 | 54% | 77–88 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Western Michigan
|
-1.5 | 139.1 | 43% | 61–76 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
Southern Illinois
|
+13.5 | 142.4 | 88% | 50–62 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Niagara
|
+7.9 | 126.9 | 77% | 51–68 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Norfolk State
|
+3.0 | 142.3 | 60% | 80–72 | ✗ |
BYU
@
San Diego State
|
+10.7 | 132.7 | 82% | 72–62 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
Howard
|
-4.9 | 147.4 | 30% | 76–81 | ✗ |
Saint Peter's
@
Monmouth
|
-3.4 | 146.5 | 34% | 76–78 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Loyola Chicago
|
-0.2 | 148.7 | 49% | 75–73 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Robert Morris
|
— | — | — | 85–65 | — |
Drake
@
South Dakota
|
-4.7 | 144.7 | 30% | 75–57 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Presbyterian
|
+11.4 | 138.5 | 86% | 56–62 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Morehead State
|
+2.2 | 133.6 | 58% | 69–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.