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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–10 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Butler
@
Villanova
|
+15.4 | 142.2 | 89% | 66–85 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Purdue
|
+2.6 | 141.7 | 61% | 60–67 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.4 | 135.1 | 75% | 74–71 | ✗ |
Florida International
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+3.2 | 144.0 | 65% | 85–69 | ✗ |
Central Arkansas
@
Mississippi State
|
+9.0 | 149.0 | 80% | 65–81 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
UL Monroe
|
+5.5 | 130.1 | 69% | 78–61 | ✗ |
UNC Asheville
@
Chattanooga
|
+13.1 | 144.3 | 87% | 66–69 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Oklahoma State
|
+7.5 | 135.9 | 80% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Samford
@
Troy
|
-4.9 | 139.2 | 29% | 71–79 | ✗ |
Kennesaw State
@
Belmont
|
+14.8 | 141.3 | 88% | 53–64 | ✓ |
Southern
@
UAB
|
+19.3 | 145.0 | 90% | 46–88 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Texas
|
+22.5 | 141.6 | 91% | 63–79 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Oklahoma
|
+16.5 | 161.9 | 89% | 65–79 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
SMU
|
+10.4 | 149.2 | 82% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-5.0 | 125.4 | 25% | 70–51 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Jacksonville State
|
+8.2 | 134.4 | 80% | 50–74 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Notre Dame
|
+4.9 | 145.8 | 72% | 75–65 | ✗ |
UTEP
@
Arizona State
|
+7.6 | 145.4 | 78% | 76–63 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Tulane
|
-2.9 | 130.3 | 40% | 80–74 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Denver
|
+1.0 | 135.9 | 52% | 83–75 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Washington
|
+2.8 | 127.6 | 59% | 66–58 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
Southern Illinois
|
+10.4 | 142.4 | 83% | 64–85 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Bryant
|
+11.9 | 142.8 | 88% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
Sacred Heart
|
-8.3 | 138.1 | 22% | 72–87 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+19.4 | 155.4 | 90% | 73–99 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Drexel
|
+10.2 | 149.3 | 83% | 77–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.