Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -900 ECU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +15 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -13.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -10.4 (+4.6) | 149.2 (-24.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -8.7 (+6.3) | 142.4 (-17.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -7.0 (+8.0) | 148.9 (-23.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -8.4 (+6.6) | 147.6 (-22.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2024 | SMU 80 – 77 ECU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SMU 75 – 64 ECU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | SMU 86 – 70 ECU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ECU 77 – 72 SMU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | SMU 80 – 66 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-6 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Home | 6-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#34) | 3.1 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#13) | 2.25 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#30) | 3.52 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#97) | 0.596 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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