Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | WASH -320 MONT +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +8 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | WASH -1.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -2.8 (-10.8) | 127.6 (-3.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -3.1 (-11.1) | 130.1 (-6.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -3.8 (-11.8) | 127.8 (-3.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -3.2 (-11.2) | 127.1 (-3.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-21 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#169) | 2.9 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#196) | -1.45 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#171) | -1.29 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#175) | 0.457 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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