Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | DREX -125 JOES +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -12.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -8.8 (-4.8) | 149.5 (+8.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -10.2 (-6.2) | 149.3 (+8.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -12.1 (-8.1) | 146.6 (+11.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -11.3 (-7.3) | 149.3 (+8.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | JOES 76 – 65 DREX |
| Nov 18, 2021 | DREX 78 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 4-5 | 3-9 |
| Home | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Away | 4-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#140) | -6.2 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#212) | -1.14 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#216) | -1.45 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#157) | 0.459 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 59.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 37.9% |
Game Analysis
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