Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | VILL -1000 BTLR +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +19 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -22.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -15.4 (+3.6) | 142.2 (+8.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -19.8 (-0.8) | 138.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -19.1 (-0.1) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BTLR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-0 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-4 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#19) | -4.6 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#7) | 0.08 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.62 (#13) | 0.03 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#8) | 0.333 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 8.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 92.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 14.0% |
Game Analysis
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