Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -7.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -9.0 (+7.0) | 149.0 (-3.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -7.6 (+8.4) | 143.2 (+2.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -9.8 (+6.2) | 149.0 (-3.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -8.6 (+7.4) | 150.2 (-4.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 5-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-5 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#126) | -0.7 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#187) | -1.49 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#187) | -1.81 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#150) | 0.482 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 28.0% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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