Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TROY +120 SAM -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -9.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -4.9 (+12.9) | 139.2 (+10.8) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -5.6 (+13.6) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.8 (+13.8) | 141.3 (+8.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.9 (+13.9) | 138.8 (+11.2) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#267) | 7.7 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#113) | 1.46 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#137) | 3.04 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#109) | 0.702 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 24.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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