Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | MTSU +650 MISS -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +19 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -8.6 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -7.9 (-11.1) | 129.0 (-8.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -5.0 (-14.0) | 125.4 (-4.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -8.0 (-11.0) | 126.5 (-5.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -8.1 (-10.9) | 130.0 (-9.0) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2021 | MISS 62 – 52 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#234) | 9.3 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#262) | 1.65 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#202) | 2.72 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#248) | 0.522 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 24.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 31.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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