Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -0.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -4.3 (+5.7) | 134.8 (-20.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -2.2 (+7.8) | 137.5 (-23.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -1.8 (+8.2) | 138.4 (-24.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -2.0 (+8.0) | 139.5 (-25.5) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2020 | MISS 70 – 51 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#156) | 4.6 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#194) | 1.36 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#194) | 1.40 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#253) | 0.568 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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