Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | ND +120 DUKE -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -6.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.9 (-14.9) | 145.8 (-5.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.3 (-13.3) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -5.5 (-15.5) | 148.3 (-8.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -3.7 (-13.7) | 147.8 (-7.8) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | DUKE 100 – 56 ND |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DUKE 86 – 78 ND |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DUKE 71 – 53 ND |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DUKE 67 – 59 ND |
| Feb 15, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#133) | -0.1 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#125) | -0.49 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#129) | -0.35 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#95) | 0.485 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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