Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ULM -8.9 (-25.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -5.5 (-22.5) | 130.1 (+8.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -5.7 (-22.7) | 133.5 (+5.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -4.0 (-21.0) | 134.3 (+4.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -5.1 (-22.1) | 131.3 (+7.7) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#246) | -9.1 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#282) | -1.12 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#292) | -1.41 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#276) | 0.484 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 34.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 13.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 36.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 25.8% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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