Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -1300 UTEP +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +13 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -9.2 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -7.6 (-20.6) | 145.4 (-6.4) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -6.0 (-19.0) | 145.0 (-6.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -7.3 (-20.3) | 147.5 (-8.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -8.7 (-21.7) | 146.5 (-7.5) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#92) | 1.1 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#41) | -0.83 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#52) | -1.32 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#42) | 0.507 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 59.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 39.4% |
Game Analysis
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