Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | NIA -200 FAIR +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +17 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -13.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -7.9 (+9.1) | 126.9 (-7.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -9.3 (+7.7) | 131.2 (-12.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -7.8 (+9.2) | 127.6 (-8.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -7.8 (+9.2) | 126.4 (-7.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-11 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#243) | -13.1 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#239) | -1.93 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#206) | -2.54 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#233) | 0.308 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.0% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.3% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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