Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +30 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -22.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -15.2 (+14.8) | 143.1 (-3.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -18.6 (+11.4) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -20.8 (+9.2) | 143.2 (-3.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -21.3 (+8.7) | 144.4 (-4.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | UNT 77 – 75 HCU |
| Dec 22, 2024 | UNT 62 – 46 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#77) | -11.1 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#211) | -2.07 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#215) | -3.10 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#176) | 0.432 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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