Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -950 HCU +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -9.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -11.5 (-9.5) | 126.2 (+25.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -6.6 (-4.6) | 130.0 (+22.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -7.1 (-5.1) | 129.6 (+22.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -7.3 (-5.3) | 129.5 (+22.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2024 | UNT 62 – 46 HCU |
| Dec 18, 2020 | UNT 85 – 55 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#210) | -7.2 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#226) | -1.41 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#242) | -2.77 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#254) | 0.390 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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