All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Gersten Pavilion · December 18, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread LMU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 142.0 Under
Money LMU -200 / UCI +175
Model Predictions
Spread Total LMU win
Actual LMU +3 99 Won
Massey LMU -14.5 (-11.5)
Massey Totals 145.1 (-46.1)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML LMU -13.2 (-10.2) 144.6 (-45.6) 88%
Baseline ML LMU -13.4 (-10.4) 144.7 (-45.7) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML LMU -12.0 (-9.0) 144.1 (-45.1) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML LMU -10.9 (-7.9) 142.3 (-43.3) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 9, 2024 UCI 6651 LMU
Nov 16, 2022 UCI 7964 LMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LMU UCI
Overall 13-9 18-9
Conference 7-5 10-4
Home 8-3 10-1
Away 4-5 6-6
Neutral 1-1 2-2
Last 5 2-3 0-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.5 68.4
Avg Pts Against 68.0 64.1
Massey 0.5 (#142) -8.9 (#286)
Bradley-Terry 0.79 (#111) -2.17 (#291)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.11 (#109) -3.57 (#297)
RPI 0.602 (#47) 0.464 (#192)
Shooting & Four Factors LMU UCI
FG% 43.4% 39.5%
3PT% 34.1% 28.8%
REB / G 38.0 35.7
OREB / G 12.3 12.3
AST / TO 0.79 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 43.5%
TOV% 22.6% 23.0%
ORB% 35.1% 32.5%
FT Rate 30.3% 13.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 56.1%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 14.6%
DRB% 76.2% 65.4%
Opp FT Rate 29.1% 22.9%

Game Analysis

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