Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -18.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +23 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -23.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -15.8 (+7.2) | 130.9 (+12.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -16.4 (+6.6) | 133.2 (+9.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -20.3 (+2.7) | 133.2 (+9.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -17.0 (+6.0) | 131.5 (+11.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 12-6 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-0 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#99) | -14.3 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#133) | -1.62 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#164) | -2.65 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#104) | 0.443 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 39.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 31.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 13.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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