Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -2.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -3.4 (+5.4) | 146.5 (+7.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.0 (+6.0) | 150.7 (+3.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -0.6 (+2.6) | 151.3 (+2.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2022 | SPU 60 – 54 MONM |
| Feb 26, 2022 | SPU 70 – 65 MONM |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SPU 67 – 62 MONM |
| Dec 19, 2020 | SPU 78 – 76 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 61.5 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#272) | 0.3 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#311) | 0.65 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.94 (#316) | 1.73 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#297) | 0.492 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 21.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 15.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 65.7% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.9% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 56.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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