Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +6 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -17.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -11.4 (-5.4) | 138.5 (-20.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -6.7 (-0.7) | 138.0 (-20.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -11.3 (-5.3) | 137.5 (-19.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#276) | -19.8 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#230) | -3.42 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#240) | -4.78 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#274) | 0.336 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 28.2% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 10.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.0% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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