Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | ORE -330 SF +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -6.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -7.5 (+2.5) | 148.1 (-10.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -5.6 (+4.4) | 144.5 (-6.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -7.7 (+2.3) | 150.4 (-12.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -7.2 (+2.8) | 148.8 (-10.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-7 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 3-5 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#40) | 8.8 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#29) | 0.37 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#19) | 0.58 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#67) | 0.500 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 36.6% |
Game Analysis
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