Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | HAMP -5.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -4.9 (+9.9) | 147.4 (+9.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -4.3 (+9.3) | 144.3 (+12.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -2.9 (+7.9) | 151.6 (+5.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -3.8 (+8.8) | 151.7 (+5.3) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | HOW 61 – 57 HAMP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | HAMP 80 – 79 HOW |
| Dec 28, 2024 | HAMP 83 – 67 HOW |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HAMP 63 – 61 HOW |
| Nov 7, 2023 | HOW 92 – 80 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Massey | -16.1 (#316) | -5.5 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.43 (#319) | -0.74 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.21 (#319) | -0.84 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.270 (#318) | 0.380 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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