Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | NEV -800 AF +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -13.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -8.5 (+8.5) | 131.5 (-0.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -8.9 (+8.1) | 128.1 (+2.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -9.1 (+7.9) | 130.9 (+0.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -8.9 (+8.1) | 132.2 (-1.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-2 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#124) | -6.4 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#124) | -0.15 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#149) | -0.82 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#48) | 0.495 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 14.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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