Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | USU -6.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.4 (+9.6) | 142.8 (-29.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -4.2 (+8.8) | 140.3 (-27.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.7 (+7.3) | 142.9 (-29.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -4.2 (+8.8) | 142.5 (-29.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 11-11 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 6-8 |
| Home | 10-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#213) | -4.6 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#231) | 0.13 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#254) | -0.13 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#220) | 0.500 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 27.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 83.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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