Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -2200 TROY +1175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +36 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -10.0 (+26.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -7.5 (+28.5) | 133.3 (-15.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -8.5 (+27.5) | 136.6 (-18.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -8.7 (+27.3) | 136.9 (-18.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -8.9 (+27.1) | 133.7 (-15.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#135) | -4.1 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#51) | 1.15 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#52) | 1.58 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#82) | 0.546 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 33.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 37.8% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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