Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -250 VAL +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +14 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -10.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -10.8 (+3.2) | 143.3 (-15.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.0 (+5.0) | 140.9 (-12.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -10.7 (+3.3) | 143.8 (-15.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.5 (+3.5) | 143.9 (-15.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2022 | TOL 85 – 70 VAL |
| Nov 10, 2021 | TOL 69 – 61 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#81) | -0.1 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#73) | -1.74 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#51) | -2.36 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#102) | 0.371 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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