Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | MAN -155 MRST +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +22 | 100 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -1.8 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-41.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -1.3 (-20.7) | 139.5 (-39.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -0.8 (-21.2) | 135.5 (-35.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -1.5 (-20.5) | 141.8 (-41.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -1.5 (-20.5) | 140.1 (-40.1) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MRST 84 – 70 MAN |
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRST 80 – 68 MAN |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MRST 82 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MRST 57 – 50 MAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MRST 70 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-13 | 12-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#267) | -0.3 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#241) | 1.01 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#238) | 1.04 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.237 (#322) | 0.400 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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