Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FDU +230 DREX -294 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +17 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -3.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -3.0 (-14.0) | 139.9 (+13.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -3.3 (-13.7) | 141.6 (+11.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -3.9 (-13.1) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -4.1 (-12.9) | 142.8 (+10.2) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2021 | DREX 86 – 65 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-5 |
| Home | 4-6 | 3-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#286) | -0.2 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#290) | -0.61 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.46 (#299) | -1.39 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#241) | 0.477 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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