Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | PEPP -150 UCSB +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -4.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -3.4 (-15.4) | 154.1 (-16.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -3.8 (-15.8) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -3.0 (-15.0) | 152.0 (-14.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -4.1 (-16.1) | 154.4 (-16.4) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | UCSB 67 – 64 PEPP |
| Dec 4, 2021 | UCSB 86 – 74 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-0 |
| Away | 3-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#140) | 1.1 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#223) | 0.76 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#220) | 1.32 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#213) | 0.569 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 43.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 59.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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