Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -405 LOU +325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +37 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -2.8 (+34.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -3.6 (+33.4) | 134.2 (-1.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -2.6 (+34.4) | 131.4 (+1.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -6.8 (+30.2) | 132.7 (+0.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -4.4 (+32.6) | 133.6 (-0.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#44) | 12.4 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#85) | 2.98 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#62) | 4.57 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#110) | 0.708 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 51.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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