Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
| Money | DAY +115 MISS -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -6.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -2.5 (+5.5) | 131.1 (-4.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -1.9 (+4.9) | 127.1 (-0.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -2.7 (+5.7) | 127.3 (-0.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -3.6 (+6.6) | 131.0 (-4.0) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2021 | MISS 76 – 68 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#138) | 11.7 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#74) | 2.20 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#80) | 3.67 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#53) | 0.527 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 24.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 26.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 38.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 30.3% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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